Still Growing consumption as growth engine: private part

The Center for Economic Studies of the Private Sector (CEESP) estimated that domestic consumption preserves an important dynamism as a source of growth of gross domestic product (GDP), which is reflected in the increase of more than 10 percent sales shops of supermarkets and department.

The agency considered that the general conditions of the economy seem to have no direct relationship with this dynamic, as the pace of economic growth remains comparable to that of the last 30 years.

However, some related indicators show a great performance, as the evolution of workers in the IMSS, which at the end of last April added a complete of 18 million 237 thousand workers, which in the first four months of the year were added 353400 more records.

In his weekly "executive Economic Analysis", he considered that some factors may have an impact on the dynamism of consumption in an environment and outlook weak economy in a context of global instability.

One element has been the downward trend shown by inflation since early 2015, to settle at their historically low levels, which has helped improve the purchasing power of wages genuine, that January an April this year recovered 8.3 percent.

Another component that seems to have a major impact on the evolution of consumption is the inflow of family remittances to the country, which have significantly benefited the recipients by the effect of the exchange rate.

He said that in 2015 entered the country 24 thousand 792 million dollars in remittances, while the exchange rate depreciated by 17.6 percent, and the conversion to pesos, were 79 thousand 274 million weights greater than the 2014 amount that should be used for drinking.

While during the first three months of this year, the flow of remittances in pesos exceeded 26 thousand 508 million pesos to the figure of 2015, and in both cases, child the highest figures over the number of remittances published by Banco de Mexico since 1995.

One element contributing to the positive behavior of consumption is increasing the population of the country, that the groundwork quarter of 2016 exceeded 1.7 million people the figures of the same period of 2015, and has led to an increase in the wage bill.

An additional cause that may also promote sales indicators is the expenditure of political parties related to election campaigns this year, which is seen by many pantries and incentives that have been left recently discovered.

These factors, pointed out, have favored the evolution of consumption, but have responded largely an conjunctural events, which is not definite that can be maintained in the medium and long term.

Risk it, the research organization considered major private area continue working on strengthening the factors that stimulate investment, growth, employment and confidence of households and businesses.

"This I will establish firm and not short-term basis to achieve a more dynamic performance of the economy and reach the target growth rates close to 5.0 percent on a sustained basis," he said.